Where Will We Go?

The human consequences of rising sea levels

by Kadir van Lohuizen

"For the past year and a half, I have been looking at the global consequences of rising sea levels caused by climate change. Today, no one any longer doubts that glaciers the world over are retreating, and even more worryingly that Greenland and Antartica are melting at an increasing pace."

Kadir van Lohuizen

The question: how fast is it going? It is alarming that past figures appear to have been too conservative and humanity should start preparing for the biggest displacement of mankind in known history. As people in all of the world’s regions become displaced at ever growing scales, the biggest question is: where will they go?

In my reportage I have tried to provide globally balanced coverage of how climate change is already affecting places where people live. I have traveled to Kiribati, Fiji, the Carteret Atoll in Papua New Guinea, Bangladesh, the Guna Yala coastline in Panama, the United Kingdom and the United States. In these different regions I not only looked at the areas that are affected or will be affected, but also where people will likely have to relocate to. I photographed and interviewed families who still partly live in affected areas and other family members who have already moved to safer ground. What is often forgotten is that before seas flood land permanently, the sea water intrudes much earlier at high tides, thus making once-fertile land no longer viable for crops and drinking water brackish and undrinkable.

Coastal erosion, inundation, worse and more frequent coastal surges and contamination of drinking water mean increasingly that people have to flee their homes and lands in a growing number of locales across the world. Almost no one with whom I have spoken wants to move; they simply have no other choice as conditions worsen.

The human costs of these movements are dramatic in the extreme. Kiribati may be forced to relocate its entire poplution if things get much worse. In Bangladesh it is likely that up to 50 million people will have to move from the delta region by 2050 and nobody knows at this stage where they will go. Although often ignored by climate change campaigners, the US East Coast is experiencing three times faster  rising sea levels than the global average because Western Greenland’s glaciers and ice are melting so quickly. Protecting cities on the eastern seaboard will require enormous financial resources. Miami is likely to be lost. The now propserous city is built on limestone, so seawalls will not protect the city, since the water will enter under the built seawall. Therefore, its expected that the Miami Beach and bay area need to be evacuated by 2060.

The Rising Sea Levels project is designed to highlight both the immense complexities associated with in-island and inter-island/country movement, as well as the specific human rights implications involved with such involuntary movements.

It is estimated that in the (near) future 50 million people need to be evacuated to higher grounds. Being so densely populated, land is already very scarce. Already an estimated 6.5 million people have been displaced already due to climate change.

Low-lying countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati are looking at the possibility of evacuating their people to Fiji. The government of Kiribati has recently purchased 6000 acres of land from the Anglican church. Officially this will be used to grow crops for the people of Kiribati, but could in the future very well be the area where Kiribati will relocate to.

Kiribati

The Republic of Kiribati (pronounce Kiribas) in the Central Pacific Ocean consists of 32 low-lying atolls, dispersed over an area of the size of India. The population of Kiribati is 100,000, of which more than half currently live in the capital Tarawa.

Globally, Kiribati is one of the countries most affected by rising sea levels. Part of the atolls are being protected by seawalls and people protect their communities with sandbags. At high tide large areas experience sea water intrusion. This intrusion also affects the availability of fresh drinking water and the availability of land to grow crops.

Sea level is expected to rise, caused not only by the melting of ice caps and glaciers, but also because sea water expands when it warms up. The impact of storm surges and coastal erosion are already very visible. It is very likely that the whole nation will need to be evacuated and will be completely unlivable in 30-60 years, which means the entire population will become stateless. For this reason the government of Kiribati recently purchased a piece of land in Fiji.

The main reason for the world’s rising sea levels is the melting of Greenland’s ice cap and glaciers, occuring at an unprecedented speed.

For the people in the south of Greenland, this is actually good news: due to the absence of snow and ice they can grow crops now – potatoes, unions, salad and even strawberries. People hope this will make them less dependent on Danish imports and that food prices would decrease.

Jamaica, Seychelles & Grenada

The Small Island Development States (SIDS) are on the forefront of climate change and are most vulnerable to rising sea levels. For instance, the land in countries such as Kiribati and the Maldives is not more then two metres above sea level.

Grenada, Jamaica and the Seychelles may seem to be in a better position due to the fact that they are mountainous, but their coastal regions serious threat. These are the areas where infrastructure and economic assets are at stake – cities, towns, airports, seaports, oil storage, generators, etc.

Islands in the tropics are often protected by coral reefs, which are also crucial ecosystems. Over the years many reefs have died or deteriorated. Reasons for this include the effects of El Nino, dynamite fishing, warming seas – which often results in bleaching of the reefs, etc. With rising sea levels, these coastal areas are therefore eroding faster then ever.

Mangroves are just as crucial as reefs. Over the years many mangroves have disappeared due to coastal development, pollution and rising seas. Mangroves can be grown in nurseries, but it takes a long time before the plants have a considerable size.

Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea is the eastern part of the island New Guinea and consists of numerous offshore islands. Although the population is only just over 6 million, more then 800 languages are spoken.

The offshore islands are under direct threat of the rising sea levels, among them are the Carteret atolls. The situation is so urgent that people are starting to evacuate themselves to Bougainville, a bigger island some 60 miles away. The government promised to coordinate the relocation and pay for it, but so far nothing has happened.

There is no food on the Carterets anymore due to the seawater intrusion, which disables people from growing crops, and there are no wells available with drinking water.

United Kingdom

The coast of Yorkshire’s East Riding faces the fastest coastal erosion in Europe, presently accelerated by the rising sea level.

The United States' East Coast is experiencing three to four times higher rising sea levels than the global average.

It was only fairly recently that scientists discovered that ice has a gravity that pulls water towards it. When ice melts it contributes to the already rising sealevel. Because Western Greenland’s glaciers and icecap are melting quickly, the east coast of the USA experiences this sharp increase. Thirty-nine percent of the US population lives in coastal areas and generates half of the US GDP. If nothing is done, the US economy will be affected on a scale never seen before.